This may not end well...

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn)
09/30/2015 at 09:26 • Filed to: None

The BBC is reporting that Russia has begun air strikes in Syria to bolster the regime of their ally, President Bashar al-Assad. The strikes are being made against the rebels fighting Assad, the same rebels that the US are supporting, after publicly saying over the weekend that Assad must go. The Russians have asked that US warplanes stay clear of the area, and I doubt the US will interfere. At least for now.

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DISCUSSION (16)

Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras > ttyymmnn
09/30/2015 at 09:33

In a world where we pick between the lesser of two evils a lot...I’d rather Assad (the bastard that he is) than any ‘rebel’ movement having power in a Middle Eastern country

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > ttyymmnn
09/30/2015 at 09:38

So more cold war era proxy wars?

Awesome...

ttyymmnn > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
09/30/2015 at 09:42

Exactly. When we should really be teaming up to fight ISIS.

ttyymmnn > Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras
09/30/2015 at 09:47

They removed Tito and look what happened to Yugoslavia. They removed Saddam and look what happened to Iraq. I know that Assad is no angel, but sometimes you need a strongman to maintain order. A powerful Assad would have been much better equipped to deal with ISIS, and ISIS may never have gained the foothold that it did, at least in Syria. Our current and former administrations haven’t played the cards very well, IMO.

uofime-2 > ttyymmnn
09/30/2015 at 09:48

Now does the US start bombing Assad and tell the russians to stay out of the airspace?

This can only end poorly

This would almost be funny if it wasn’t so damn sad.

ttyymmnn > uofime-2
09/30/2015 at 09:51

So far, the US has refrained from providing direct battlefield assistance to the rebels, instead sending them guns, etc. We’re only operating agaisnt ISIS (as far as we know). Putin knows that he pretty much has a free hand right now, since nobody really did a damned thing about Crimea or Ukraine. Nobody has the stomach for WWIII so he will do what he wants militarily, while the diplomats talk uselessly.

uofime-2 > ttyymmnn
09/30/2015 at 09:58

is he still in the US? Its an interesting move that he met with the president while clearly already having this planned.

ttyymmnn > uofime-2
09/30/2015 at 10:02

I don’t know where he is, but for now at least, he operates with impunity. He sat through the whole of the Sochii Olympics, knowing full well that he was going to annex Crimea as soon as the torch was put out. He can come eat our food and know that there’s nothing we can do to stop any of his plans. He’s not even listening.

uofime-2 > ttyymmnn
09/30/2015 at 10:05

It’s scary. What do you do with a person like that, how do you stop him without starting ww3?

haveacarortwoorthree2 > ttyymmnn
09/30/2015 at 10:12

Other news channels are reporting the Russian strikes are against ISIS.

ttyymmnn > haveacarortwoorthree2
09/30/2015 at 10:26

I haven’t had time to read more than what the Beeb is reoporting. However, knowing Putin’s track record, I don’t think he flew all those planes over there to attack ISIS. This is about remaining relevant in world politics and sticking a finger in the US’s eye.

haveacarortwoorthree2 > ttyymmnn
09/30/2015 at 10:29

I don’t necessarily disagree about his end game. But my suspicion is that the Russkies bomb ISIS for a few days, then have an “oops” and bomb the rebels, then make up something about how the rebels retaliated for the oopsie and now Russia has to bomb them to protect the troops.

ttyymmnn > uofime-2
09/30/2015 at 10:34

It is unsettling. We’ve been hitting him hard with economic sanctions, and he’s really feeling the pinch . But he’s a bully, and this is the way bullies react when they’re put in a corner. But to answer your question, I’m afraid I don’t really know. If we continue to make life difficult for the average Russian citizen, then there might be domestic pressure for Putin to back down. But the Russians are a historically resilient people (see: Leningrad ), and I think Putin is pretty popular, at least among the more nationalistic Russians (which is probably most of them). Keep up the economic pressure, hope that oil stays cheap, keep negotiating, hope for the best.

ttyymmnn > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
09/30/2015 at 10:36

Not exactly a proxy war if the Russians are there doing the fighting in their own machines and not just arming/training Assad’s forces. If US and Russian planes start shooting at each other, this could get very ugly very fast.

ttyymmnn > haveacarortwoorthree2
09/30/2015 at 10:38

We’ll have to wait and see. It’s also difficult to tell which is the rebles and which is ISIS, and they both pose a threat to Assad, though the rebels are much closer right now, and control more territory in western Syria.

ttyymmnn > haveacarortwoorthree2
09/30/2015 at 10:48

Actually, you may be close to correct. They’re making a show in the Russian legislature about this being a fight against ISIS, but they chose to drop their bombs today on Homs, which is firmly controlled by the rebels. They make overtures to the US about forming a grand coalition to fight ISIS, but what they really want is to keep Assad in power, in all likelihood to maintain their naval base on the Mediterranean Sea.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/wor…